Emerging Hotspots and Drivers of Insecurity

The report identifies Zamfara, Katsina, and Borno states as ongoing flashpoints, while new areas of volatility emerged in Niger, Rivers, and Osun states. A key driver of the instability appears to be political tension, with the looming 2027 general elections already stirring unrest and prompting a state of emergency in Rivers State.

There has also been a resurgence of Non-State Armed Groups (NSAGs), particularly the Lakurawa faction operating in the North West. Additionally, violent inter-community clashes in Osun, coupled with mob violence in Edo and national protests over security failures, have further strained the country’s internal stability.

Government Responds with Military and Legislative Measures

In response to the growing crisis, the Nigerian government has launched a series of targeted military operations aimed at dismantling armed groups and criminal networks. President Bola Tinubu took a firm stance in March, condemning the violence in Edo, declaring emergency rule in Rivers, and advancing cybersecurity and international cooperation efforts.

Legislators also passed the 2025 federal budget, which includes a record security allocation. New tax reforms and legislation on electoral integrity and national security are also being implemented to bolster institutional resilience.

Economic Consequences and Sectoral Challenges

Despite some progress in curbing inflation, the report notes persistent macroeconomic volatility, exacerbated by ongoing currency instability and supply chain disruptions. The oil and gas sector remains under threat, with rampant oil theft, illegal refining, and incidents such as the Trans Niger Pipeline explosion impacting national output.

Meanwhile, the agricultural sector continues to face serious challenges. Government-led, tech-driven reforms have shown promise, but food insecurity remains a pressing issue for millions of Nigerians.

Regional and International Context

At the regional level, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) reaffirmed its commitment to regional stability, with defense chiefs activating the Standby Force as a precautionary measure. The report also notes the growing influence of U.S. foreign policy on Nigeria and its West African neighbors, with implications for security cooperation and economic policy.

Conclusion

As Nigeria navigates a volatile start to 2025, the report underscores the need for sustained security reforms, strengthened governance, and regional cooperation. Analysts warn that without coordinated action, the combination of political tension, armed conflict, and economic uncertainty could deepen the country’s risk landscape in the months ahead.