BY TAIBAT UMMI YAKUBU

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has warned that an intensifying El Niño phenomenon could worsen food insecurity, water shortages, health challenges and economic pressures across West Africa, urging governments to strengthen preparations ahead of possible climate disruptions in 2027.

In an advisory issued through its Disaster Operations Centre (EDOC), the regional bloc said the weather phenomenon was expected to reach strong or very strong intensity towards the end of 2026, with possible effects on rainfall and temperatures extending into February 2027.

The warning comes as countries across the region move from the rainy season into the dry and dusty Harmattan period. ECOWAS noted that rainfall distribution in 2026 had been uneven, with some areas recording excessive rainfall while others experienced shortages. Above-normal temperatures have also persisted across much of the region.

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures become unusually warm in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can influence atmospheric conditions and disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns in different parts of the world.

Citing the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), ECOWAS said the current El Niño episode was firmly established and could become exceptionally strong before reaching its peak towards the end of the year.

Nigeria's Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has also expressed concern over the developing phenomenon, saying ocean observations indicated the emergence of a strong El Niño event in 2026, with the potential to influence global weather patterns.

However, ECOWAS cautioned that its effects would not be the same across all West African countries. It explained that other climate factors, including conditions in the tropical Atlantic, Mediterranean and Indian oceans, could influence how the phenomenon affects individual parts of the region.

The advisory warned that El Niño has often been associated with reduced rainfall, prolonged dry spells and rising temperatures in parts of the Sahel and West Africa, although its emergence does not automatically mean that every country will experience unfavourable weather.

Forecasts from the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre also point to above-average temperatures across almost the entire West African region between September and November 2026. Some coastal communities along the Gulf of Guinea, however, could experience intense rainfall and localised flooding during the second rainy season.

ECOWAS identified agriculture and food security among the sectors facing significant risks. It said prolonged dry spells and excessive heat could affect crop production, reduce soil moisture and limit pasture for livestock, while flooding in other locations could destroy farmland and damage infrastructure.

The regional organisation warned that these conditions could further threaten food supplies, particularly in communities already struggling with climate-related difficulties, and called for close monitoring of food security throughout the 2026/2027 agricultural season.

Water resources are another major concern, as reduced rainfall and increased evaporation could lower water reserves, river levels and pasture availability during the dry season. Such shortages could put additional pressure on farming, livestock production, hydroelectric power generation and household water supplies.

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The commission also cautioned that worsening climate conditions could deepen existing humanitarian challenges in communities already affected by poverty, food insecurity, displacement and conflict, potentially increasing the number of people requiring assistance.

On public health, ECOWAS warned that rising temperatures could increase cases of heat-related illnesses and dehydration, particularly among children, older people, pregnant women, outdoor workers and individuals living with chronic diseases.

It further identified malnutrition, cholera and acute diarrhoeal diseases as possible risks associated with crop losses, flooding and inadequate access to safe water.

The organisation also warned that stagnant water left behind by heavy rainfall could create favourable conditions for malaria transmission, while dusty Harmattan conditions could worsen respiratory illnesses and increase the risk of meningitis, especially in countries within the West African meningitis belt.

To limit the potential impact, ECOWAS urged governments and residents to pay close attention to weather forecasts and early-warning information issued by national meteorological agencies, the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) and its Disaster Operations Centre.

It advised residents to drink safe water, remain adequately hydrated, observe malaria prevention measures and avoid prolonged outdoor activities during the hottest periods of the day.

The advisory also encouraged travellers to check weather forecasts and road conditions before setting out, avoid routes affected by flooding and prepare for possible flight delays.

For its own operations, ECOWAS called for stronger workplace safety measures, including adequate ventilation, cooling facilities and drinking water in offices. It also recommended flexible working arrangements during periods of extreme heat.

The commission further urged that climate-related risks be considered when planning official trips and meetings, with virtual and hybrid options maintained where necessary. It also called for stronger business continuity arrangements, including backup electricity and water supplies and facilities for remote working.

ECOWAS said sustained cooperation between the commission, national authorities and its Disaster Operations Centre would be essential to improving preparedness, sharing timely information and reducing the risks associated with changing climate conditions across West Africa.